Patterns of buyer behavior and brand metrics in a “high loyalty” category: Liquor
The study aims to extend knowledge of the factors that underlie behavioural loyalty, including brand characteristics of price level and promotion incidence, and buyer characteristics of age and income, in a high loyalty category: liquor (distilled spirits). The analysis confirms that liquor is indeed a high loyalty category and identifies that liquor brands follow the double jeopardy pattern, whereby larger-share brands enjoy somewhat higher loyalty, and that exceptions—brands with unusually high or low volume loyalty for their size—are related to high volume purchased per occasion. In turn, there is a strong negative association between brand price and high average volume purchased per occasion (i.e., cheaper brands are bought in larger quantity or volume than expensive ones). The study also finds that brands with a low price tend to be particularly attractive to low-income households, and that, in turn, low-income households exhibit higher brand loyalty.
CitationDawes, J. (2023). "Patterns of buyer behavior and brand metrics in a “high loyalty” category: Liquor". Journal of Consumer Behaviour, 1– 15
Understanding consumer behaviour in evolving subscription markets – lessons from sports season tickets research
Literature review on sports season ticket subscriptions to distil current knowledge and guide future research and practice. In-depth examination of 28 papers supported themes of drivers of satisfaction, churn and renewal causes, and product utilisation rates. Subscription markets typically involve many ‘solely loyal’ consumers, most purchasing one or two subscriptions in a category. From reduced barriers to entry and exit to ‘curated’ subscriptions, subscription marketing is changing very quickly. Sports marketers build relationships with subscribers using behavioural data, tier benefits to distinguish between casual and subscribing customers, and create recall and scarcity around key aspects of subscription to combat churn and increase utilisation. Rapid expansion of subscription products should reduce ‘excess loyalty’; subscription models’ main benefit will be reoccurring revenue. Exceptions occur when consumers are heavily connected to the product or have little provider choice, so allocate their category buying exclusively. New subscription products face myriad challenges. Guidance on effective subscription marketing from sports marketing research and practice is outlined.
CitationMcDonald, H., Dunn, S., Schreyer, D., Sharp, B. (2023). "Understanding consumer behaviour in evolving subscription markets - lessons from sports season tickets research". Forthcoming in the Journal of Service Management.
Re-examining age-related loyalty for low-involvement purchasing
Previous research on age-related loyalty is sparse, contradictory and suffers from methodological limitations and criticisms. This study applies two methodological advances to fresh purchasing data to give a much clearer picture of age-related differences in brand loyalty. An online brand choice survey (n=1,862) is used to examine age-related loyalty within three low-involvement categories in New Zealand. Contrary to prior research, age-related differences in loyalty are detected in two of the three low-involvement categories studied. The third category does not show detectable loyalty for any age group. Despite showing minor differences in loyalty, older consumers still purchase from a wide portfolio of brands and so should not be ignored by marketers.
CitationMecredy, P., Wright, M., Feetham, P., Stern, P. (2022) "Re-examining age-related loyalty for low-involvement
purchasing”. European Journal of Marketing. Vol. 56 No. 7. pp. 1773-1798
Remembering less, or needing less? Age-related differences in the purchase funnel
This study explores how age influences the stages of the brand purchase funnel (awareness, consideration, and purchase) and the mechanisms associated with any age-related differences. Aggregated analysis of survey data (n=1,862) across five markets and four age groups shows a reduction in the proportion of brands recognised that subsequently enter the consideration and purchase sets of older consumers. Peak cognitive performance occurs at age 56. There is a linear decline for purchase set size across age. Therefore, age-related differences in brand awareness and consideration, and the mechanisms driving these changes, do not greatly impact age-related increases in loyalty. Instead, findings suggest age-related increases in loyalty result from a combination of accumulated experience, development of purchase habits and declining category purchase rates.
CitationMecredy, P., Wright, M., Feetham, P., Stern, P. (2023). "Remembering less, or needing less? Age-related differences in the purchase funnel". Marketing Letters
Predicting future consumer purchases in grocery retailing with the condensed Poisson lognormal model
To identify the effect of marketing actions on consumer purchasing, analysts must disentangle the dynamic component of purchasing from expected period-to-period stochastic fluctuations. This is done by comparing marketplace observations to the conditional expectation of future purchasing. Current methods of deriving the conditional expectation contain systematic bias and rely on certain unrealistic modelling assumptions. We therefore propose a new model to predict future consumer purchases in grocery retailing. The new model is a mixture of Erlang-2, Poisson and lognormal distributions or a condensed Poisson lognormal model (CPLN). Using two grocery retailing datasets from the UK, we demonstrate that the CPLN model predicts future consumer purchases well with error of 7% and 9%, respectively. Compared with the previous benchmark model, the condensed Negative Binominal Distribution (CNBD), the CPLN model reduces error by 50% (7% versus 14%) and 67% (9% versus 27%), respectively. Theoretical and practical implications for retailers are discussed.
CitationTrinh, G. and Wright, M. (2021) "Predicting future consumer purchases in grocery retailing with the condensed Poisson lognormal model". Forthcoming in
Encouraging healthier choices in supermarkets: a co-design approach
Food consumption is an integral part of daily life that provides sustenance to support the body but also fulfils many other human needs, including pleasure and social connection. For some time, ecological models have conceptualised health as being determined by both individual factors and surrounding influences. However, more recent thinking has conceptualised the need for food well-being as ‘a positive psychological, physical, emotional, and social relationship with food at both the individual and societal levels’ which, by definition, necessitates the recognition of influences broader than any individual. This thinking can be extended to include retail settings which have been shown to influence (mostly negatively) the healthfulness of food choices, thereby affecting dietary behaviours.
This research describes and evaluates the co-creation of a programme called “A Healthy Choice”. Underpinned by design thinking (DT), this study aims to improve the healthfulness of food choices in supermarkets among consumers to promote their well-being.
CitationBogomolova, S., Carins, J., Dietrich, T., Bogomolov, T. and Dollman, J. (2021) "Encouraging healthier choices in supermarkets: a co-design approach”. Forthcoming in the European Journal of Marketing.
Behavioural and Psychographic Characteristics of Supermarket Catalogue Users
Supermarket catalogues (also known as store flyers or circulars) are a popular retail tool for influencing shoppers’ behaviour and increasing store sales. Past research has documented varying effects of catalogue promotions on consumer behaviour, but it has not focused specifically on the psychographic and behavioural characteristics of catalogue users. This research aims to fill this gap through an analysis of a representative sample of 506 South Australian consumers. The results show that consumers who use supermarket catalogues are more likely to have one or more of these characteristics: price-consciousness, deal-proneness, low-income, and rarely switches brands. The contribution of this research provides empirical evidence on the user profiles of supermarket catalogues. Retailers and suppliers equipped with this knowledge can create more relevant promotions to increase efficiency and incremental sales.
CitationTan, P.J., Bogomolova, S., Tanusondjaja, A., Lockshin, L., Maria Corsi, A., and Villani, C. (2021) "Behavioural and Psychographic Characteristics of Supermarket Catalogue Users". Forthcoming in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Science
The Long-Term Erosion of Repeat-Purchase Loyalty
The study investigates the long-term erosion of repeat-purchase loyalty among consumers who purchase brands in a one-year base period. We find pronounced erosion in repeat-buying over the long-term. The proportion of buyers from a base year that fail to buy the brand in a later year increases steadily over time, from 57% in year 2 to 71.5% by year 5. Loyalty erosion has been reported before (Ehrenberg, 1988; East & Hammond 1996) but only over short periods. This study examines the phenomenon over five years, confirms that the rate of erosion does diminish over time, and that it is related to category and brand characteristics, as well as marketing mix decisions.
CitationDawes, J., Graham, C., Trinh, G. (2020) "The Long-Term Erosion of Repeat-Purchase Loyalty". Forthcoming in the European Journal of Marketing.
Analysing proprietary, private label and non-brands in fresh produce purchases
When purchasing packaged products within a supermarket, consumers choose between proprietary or private label brands. However, when purchasing fresh fruits and vegetables, non-branded produce is the dominant option – with proprietary and private label brands only recently becoming available. Previous FMCG research finds that proprietary and private label brands affect consumer loyalty - however, no research exists for fresh categories. This research is the first to determine the effect of emerging brands in fresh categories on consumer buying behaviour. Our research examines consumers’ loyalty towards proprietary, private label, or non-branded fresh fruits and vegetables and the level of customer sharing between these options, using analytical approaches applicable to FMCG categories. The panel data contains nearly 46,000 households making over eight million purchases in the United States during 2015. Results show that proprietary, private label, and now non-branded fresh produce have expected loyalty levels, for their size, and consumers share their purchases across the three options (i.e., consumers are not loyal to just one option). The study analyses and interprets purchase data in fresh categories offering marketing academics and practitioners actionable advice for working with fresh produce purchase data.
CitationAnesbury, Z., Jürkenbeck, K., Bogomolov, T., Bogomolova, S. (2020) "Analysing proprietary, private label and non-brands in fresh produce purchases". Forthcoming in the International Journal of Market Research.
Reducing information asymmetry in the auctioning of non-perishable experience goods: The case of online wine auctions
We highlight the importance of reducing the perceived risk associated with information asymmetry for experience goods. We analyse a major online non-perishable experience good, wine, from the seller’s perspective. The mechanism for lowering information asymmetry is the verification service offered by the auctioneer. By focusing on unsold items/lots, the wine and auction characteristics affecting the probability of a sale are identified. Results show that the verification of the wine’s provenance increases the probability of sale by 5.7 percent and leads to an expected increase of 5.1 percent in the auction price. When both effects are combined, the increase in the expected revenue of the seller is 7.3 percent. We test and find no evidence of selection bias. Given the heterogeneity in wine prices, a quantile regression analysis shows how the results differ for high-priced wines compared to lower priced wines. Results highlight how the mechanisms to lower the degree of information asymmetry work both in attracting bidders to online auctions and encouraging bidders to submit higher bids.
CitationOnur, I., Bruwer, J., Lockshin, L. (2019). "Reducing information asymmetry in the auctioning of non-perishable experience goods: The case of online wine auctions" Forthcoming in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services