Modeling Brand Market Share Change in Emerging Markets
The objective of the paper is to examine what happens to key brand performance metrics as brands change in market share, in the context of packaged goods. The metrics are: penetration - the number of buyers a brand has; and loyalty - measured as purchase frequency (PF) and share of category requirements (SCR).
The study utilizes 24 datasets in 17 packaged goods categories in three emerging markets: China, Malaysia and Indonesia. We examine changes in penetration, loyalty and share of category requirements in the context of volume and value market share change. In addition, we examine whether initial price point and price movements influence the results.
The primary finding is that market share change is accompanied by a greater change in penetration than in any other metric. This finding is very consistent across categories and countries. The relative importance of the two loyalty metrics varies by country. SCR was a stronger factor in Indonesia; while PF was stronger in Malaysia. Analysis indicated that pricing strategy (initial price and promotional depth) did not alter the main pattern of results, suggesting the results hold for brands with different price levels and tactics.
Irrespective of circumstance, to grow in value or volume market share, brands should aim to grow in penetration, while the importance of changes in specific loyalty measures depends on market conditions.
This research extends past research on brand growth to the very different economic, geographic and cultural conditions of three crucially important emerging markets. Its main value lies in recommendations on how much to invest in building the size of the customer base versus consumer retention.
CitationRomaniuk, J., Dawes, J., Nenycz-Thiel, M. (2018). "Modeling Brand Market Share Change in Emerging Markets". Forthcoming in the International Marketing Review.
What can the brand manager expect from Facebook?
Managers cannot afford to ignore social media and have stepped up their involvement in the belief that social media activities extend the brand’s reach and engagement with consumers. Facebook is the preeminent social medium with an ever increasing branded content. One hundred brands selected from the Interbrand “Best Global Brand Report” form the basis of this study to test research propositions about the ability of branded Facebook pages to expand and engage users. Data captured from branded Facebook pages was supplemented with socialbaker’s data. No correlation is found between the size of a brand and the number of Facebook fans, and there is no consistent relationship with user engagement and brand size.
The authors discuss broadening reach, improving engagement, interaction and activity and the implications for social media strategies and make recommendations for managing Facebook presence. Paid advertising is required to increase brand reach to all potential category users.
CitationSitta, D., Faulkner, M., Stern, P. (2018). "What can the brand manager expect from Facebook?". Forthcoming in the Australasian Marketing Journal.
Has behavioural loyalty to online supermarkets declined?
This paper investigates consumer’s behavioural loyalty to online supermarkets over time. We use three measures of behavioural loyalty (share of category requirement, repertoire size, and polarisation index) from four major online supermarkets in the UK across five categories. We find that loyalty to online supermarkets is high in the categories we examined, though it declined somewhat from 2005 to 2009 and subsequently remained stable from 2010 to 2014. We also extensively test the generalizability of the well-known Dirichlet model to the choice of online supermarkets. We find that the model gives better fit from 2010 to 2014 than from 2005 to 2009 and can describe loyalty and competition in this context.
CitationAnesbury, Z., G. Trinh and C. Driesener (2017). "Has behavioural loyalty to online supermarkets declined?" Australasian Marketing Journal 1-24.
Expanding marketing empirical generalisations to health behaviours: physical activity is not so different from buying behaviour, after-all
The Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD) is a model that describes consumer purchase frequency over time. This paper tests the applicability of this model to a novel context: physical activity behaviours (using data obtained from Australia, the United States, and Singapore). The fit of the NBD to the data demonstrates that physical activity behaviour is consistent with other consumer behaviour patterns. Within a one-week period, the majority of people are either non- or light engagers of the different intensities of leisure-time physical activity. Yet, people are not ‘active’ or ‘inactive’, rather, degree of engagement varies. Infrequency of reported levels and variety of physical activity might be due to health promotion having a strong focus on rational persuasion and less focus on mass communication that builds mental availability. Our contribution broadens the applicability of the NBD showing it can be helpful for those seeking to promote health behaviours, not just purchases.
CitationWilson, A., Sharp, B., Nguyen, C., Bogomolova, B. (2017). "Expanding marketing empirical generalisations to health behaviours: physical activity is not so different from buying behaviour, after-all." Australasian Marketing Journal Accepted November 3, 2017. .
Does Double Jeopardy apply using Average Spend Per Buyer as the Loyalty Metric?
Double Jeopardy describes how smaller brands lose twice; they have fewer buyers who are slightly less loyal. A common loyalty measure is how often people buy the brand in a given time period. An alternative loyalty measure is how much people spend, which reflects purchase frequency and price paid. The brand equity literature suggests that high equity brands should reap high purchase rates and high prices. It is therefore possible that Double Jeopardy might become obscured when using a revenue-based measure such as spend per buyer. The reason is that price variation could create more, and more pronounced, deviations from the Double Jeopardy pattern. We demonstrate that Double Jeopardy holds for spend in thirteen consumer goods categories: smaller brands have fewer buyers who spend somewhat less on the brand. We further find no relationship between brand share and average price and no relationship between excess/deficit loyalty and average price.
CitationDawes, J., Bond, A., Hartnett, N., Sharp, B. (2017). "Does Double Jeopardy apply using Average Spend Per Buyer as the Loyalty Metric?". Australasian Marketing Journal, Accepted November 1, 2017.
Conceptualizing and Measuring Brand Salience
Historically, brand salience has been considered synonymous with the brand
being ‘top of mind’ (mentioned first) when the product category is used to cue retrieval
from memory. In this article we argue that this conceptualization (and associated
measure) is too narrow. We show that there is value in distinguishing salience from the
concepts of awareness and attitude by conceptualizing brand salience as the brand’s
propensity to be noticed or come to mind in buying situations. Brand salience reflects
the quantity and quality of the network of memory structures buyers’ hold about the
brands. This article offers guidelines to facilitate research on the role of brand salience
in brand choice and buyer behaviour that are an important progression from the
evaluation (attitude) focus of contemporary marketing theory.
CitationRomaniuk, J & Sharp, B 2004, 'Conceptualizing and measuring brand salience', Marketing theory., vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 327-342.
There are two types of repeat purchase markets
In this paper we report on a pattern in aggregate buying behaviour. We have observed two distinct types of repeat purchase markets with very different patterns of customer loyalty. These differences have profound implications for marketing theory and practice.
The first, and best known, are markets with relatively few solely loyal buyers and with buyers allocating their category requirements across several brands; we call these repertoire markets. Examples of repertoire markets include fast moving consumer goods, store choice, medical prescriptions, and television channel selection.
The second are markets with many solely loyal buyers, and with buyers allocating their category requirements almost entirely to one brand; we call these subscription markets. Examples of subscription markets include insurance policies, long distance phone calls, and banking services.
The distinction between these two types of markets is not a theoretical taxonomy, but is instead a dramatic empirical difference. For example, the proportion of solely loyal buyers enjoyed by a brand over a year seldom exceeds 20% in a repertoire market, but seldom falls below 70% in a subscription market. There is virtually no middle ground between these extremes.
CitationSharp, Byron. & Wright, Malcolm (1999) ‘There are Two Types of Repeat Purchase Markets’, paper presented to the 28th European Marketing Academy Conference, Berlin, Germany, 11-14 May.
Consideration sets for Banking and Insurance purchases
This study examines the extent of consumer information search and consideration of financial services brands. It uses data from two surveys of purchasing behavior. This study finds a surprisingly low level of consumer consideration, either by personal enquiry or via the internet. The most common consideration set comprised only one brand, and this was the case for both high-value and low-value services. The managerial implication is that services marketers should make brand salience a top priority, with the competitiveness of their offer not being the primary driver of sales. If a financial services brand is salient to a consumer, there is a very high chance they will purchase that brand, without extensive comparison of the merits of alternatives.
CitationDawes J., Mundt, K. & Sharp, Byron. 2009. Considerations sets for financial services brands. Journal of Financial Services Marketing, vol. 14, pp. 190-202.
Empirical evidence of repertoire size
Empirical research over several decades has demonstrated that the average buyer in a repeat-purchase category purchases a repertoire of brands. While the commonality of this behaviour and its implications for managers are widely cited, little is known about the characteristics of a typical repertoire, and the market factors that may influence the make-up of the repertoire. Such knowledge would be a useful precursor to the implementation of marketing efforts for brands in such categories.
This paper provides much needed descriptive knowledge of the typical repertoire (i.e. its size and how it varies across consumers, time and categories). We describe this for all brands in two data sets, one containing 48 consumer goods categories and one containing 74 consumer goods categories. Our research provides information on what is typical given specific market conditions for categories and brands within those categories and thus allows for managers to measure the impact that their activities have on repertoire buying behaviour.
CitationBanelis, M., Riebe, E., Rungie, C. (2013) "Empirical evidence of repertoire size". Published in the Australasian Marketing Journal.
Brand Growth at Mars, Inc. How the Global Marketer Embraced Ehrenberg’s Science with Creativity
Can science help brands grow? Mars, Inc. has embarked on a program to apply the marketing laws originally developed and promoted by Andrew Ehrenberg. Mars has discovered that both creativity and science can—and should—work together. Just as an architect marries creativity with the laws of physics; marketers should construct brand plans that embrace the laws of growth. Mars executives are learning that creativity is more productive when unleashed within known boundaries of buyer behavior. The authors share some lessons from a continuing journey that may help others also make the transformation to a marketing science culture.
CitationKennedy, R. and B. McColl (2012). "Brand growth at Mars, Inc.: How the global marketer embraced Ehrenberg’s science with creativity." Journal of Advertising Research 52(2): 270-276.