Out of Sight… What Happens to Brand Share, Penetration, and Loyalty When Advertising Stops?
Despite widespread appreciation for the importance of advertising, brands are often observed to stop their advertising. Some publicly listed companies even cease advertising for an entire year. Scholarly attention to extended advertising cessation is new, with only one study empirically documenting brand sales change after extended periods of advertising cessation of a year and longer.
This thesis provides evidence of the value of advertising by extensively quantifying the impact of its absence. It examines Nielsen’s Ad Intel and Consumer Panel data (2010 to 2015) in the United States. Matched advertising expenditure and consumer purchases are used to quantify market share, brand penetration, and loyalties for 365 brands over six years where advertising ceased at some point for different lengths of time. This research uses a Many Sets of Data (MSoD) approach across 22 consumer package goods (CPG) product categories to seek Empirical Generalisations (EGs). This thesis tests if prior findings hold (EGs) by investigating a different market, additional categories, and different cessation periods. Statistical tests and effect sizes are also provided. This thesis comprises four studies exploring various aspects of advertising cessation.
NOTE: The full version of this Thesis is not yet available to be shared. We will post it to the website soon.
Documenting patterns in advertising post-testing measurement
Post-testing surveys provide advertisers measures of consumer response to advertising and are used to evaluate campaign performance. Performance of campaigns is evaluated against benchmarks that are specific to a market research provider’s databank and/or the advertiser’s conditions. This thesis independently reviews post-test survey data to better understand how ads perform across a large collection of intermediate measures, how scores vary across conditions and explores the relationship between these measures.
The empirical findings in this thesis provide new understanding of post-test survey scores with real-world data. The information gained from this research provides marketers with an understanding of when scores can be compared and when they cannot. Along with understanding the relationships between measures, they may help explain ad performance. This helps to ensure that marketers and brand owners make fair assessments based on informed answers on whether ad campaigns have reached realistic targets.
Using Double Jeopardy to Forecast Small Brand Growth
Small brands have proliferated in recent years in certain markets. This has led to a surge in interest in understanding how small brands grow. Industry and (some) academic publications claim that ‘niche’ positioning strategies - described as aiming for unequivocal loyalty from a handful of specially targeted consumers - best situates a small brand for growth. However, this challenges the widely observed empirical pattern known as Double Jeopardy, which illustrates that growth is actually achieved more so through penetration than loyalty. Double Jeopardy shows that true ‘niche’ brands are those that achieve ‘niche’ outcomes by acquiring excess loyalty than what is expected for their brand size. This is one of five known deviations from Double Jeopardy, along with its counterpart ‘change-of-pace’ or deficit loyalty. Furthermore, there is also evidence to show that benchmarking a small brand against the Double Jeopardy line could indicate the future potential for share growth or decline.
Do Commercial Brand Equity Metrics Provide Useful Information?
The financial valuation of brands has been contentious since its beginnings in the 1980s. Early brand valuation cases and academic contributions led to interest in measuring a brand’s equity. Today, global consultancy firms publish commercial metrics that claim to provide managers with insight into both financial and consumer value of a brand. In this thesis I investigate the usefulness of such metrics as published in brand valuation ranking reports. I examine published reports from Brand Finance, Interbrand, and Millward Brown. Their reports claim to forecast brand growth, measure customer loyalty and opinion, and estimate the financial value of top brands.
Generating Retrospective Panel Data on the Patterns of Repeat Behaviour
From the findings of this study, the conclusions show that by adhering to a number of guidelines for retrospective data collection, reliable data can be collected on patterns of regular alcohol consumption. Whether this method can be applied to other categories should be investigated further.- - From this study it is shown that a retrospective method is valuable for generating data on historical patterns of behaviour for categories where such data is lacking, and that the data obtained is invaluable for illustrating the relationship between significant events and patterns of behaviour. The retrospective method of data collection can show marketers the age(s) that changes take place in patterns of behaviour, and whether certain significant events coincide with changes in behavioural patterns. With a dearth of literature in this area of marketing science, these findings are noteworthy, of practical value and requiring further research
Understanding buyer behaviour in the primary market for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander art
Using demographic, attitudinal and behavioural measures, this study sought to understand customer profiles and purchase preferences in the lower and middle price tiers. Whilst demographic data did not enable great insight into buyers, attitudinal and behavioural measures did. Results from this thesis establish two broad consumer typologies – ‘decorators’ and collectors’. By identifying the profiles, purchase characteristics and criteria used by consumers to make purchase choices, it has tested existing consumer choice theories and contributes hitherto unavailable baseline industry data that will allow artists, art centres and agents to develop their offerings in a competitive marketplace.
Are luxury/premium products different? Do they share attributes and purchase patterns with non-luxury/non-premium products?
Luxury brands belong to one of the fastest-growing product categories with the highest profits. Most of the recent research of luxury/premium products has been conducted without describing or agreeing on the definition of the actual terms. Marketing and brand managers need to understand what attributes consumers associate with luxury/ premium products. The first objective is to understand what attributes consumers associate with luxury and premium products, and the price points to which consumers perceive these attributes to belong. The second objective is to establish whether actual consumers’ purchase patterns of luxury/premium products are similar to the well-known purchase patterns for non-luxury/non-premium products in the marketplace.
Do consumer behaviour empirical generalisations hold in emerging markets?
In Emerging Markets, brand loyalty and competition are two areas of concern for brand managers. This thesis investigates these areas for brands in eight emerging markets including the BRICS (Brazil- Russia- India-China-South Africa), Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. The research utilises 49 sets of data from these countries containing 30 product categories with 562 brands.
The formation of loyalty, how natural is it?
This thesis examines loyalty behaviour in two separate choice situations and relates these findings to past marketing literature which supports the claim it is a natural tendency to exhibit biased behaviour in choice situations. This research examines and builds upon prior research into new and varied settings: seating habits and shopper behaviour in an online grocery environment.
Modelling changes in buyer purchasing behaviour
This thesis proposes a method to identify the mechanism of change. The method is based on the distribution of changes in buyer purchasing behaviour in two sequential time periods. The distribution of changes describes the stochastic nature of changes in purchase frequency: some buyers purchase the brand one, two, three… x units more, some buyers purchase less, and some others purchase the same amount from one time period to another. Thus, the method identifies those consumers who change their buying behaviour from those who do not change; and those who make small changes from those who make large changes. Importantly, the method creates theoretically expected benchmarks of the extent of changes in purchasing behaviour. This thesis derives the distribution of changes for the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson lognormal distribution. Practical examples of the method are also presented.