When Brands Go Dark
Extending the Evidence to 22 Categories in the United States

  • Report 118
  • Peilin Phua, Nicole Hartnett, Virginia Beal, Giang Trinh, and Rachel Kennedy

Abstract

The value of mass media advertising can be demonstrated by quantifying what happens when it is removed. The current study does this, extending the work of Hartnett, Gelzinis, Beal, et al. (2021) by documenting changes in market share for 365 U.S. brands from 22 consumer goods categories that stopped advertising for at least one year. Market shares of brands without advertising declined, on average, at a steady rate year over year. On average, market share declines were more common and substantial among small brands and those losing share before advertising ceased. That prior findings generalize to a new market and many new categories increases confidence in the results.

To access the published version of this article see:

PHUA, P., HARTNETT, N., BEAL, V., TRINH, G. & KENNEDY, R. When Brands Go Dark: A Replication and Extension. Journal of Advertising Research, May 2023, 2023-009

Key Takeaways

  • Market share declines become steadily larger as time without advertising increases. On average, brands lose market share by -10% after one year, -20% after two, and 28% after three years, relative to the last advertised year.
  • Brand size and prior trajectory matters: Small and already declining brands are at greater risk of market share declines when advertising stops.
  • Category characteristics play a role: Products with longer inter-purchase intervals appear to suffer more after very long dark periods (i.e., three years).
  • Replication gives confidence that the findings are reliable and sufficiently generalizable to influence advertising decision-making.

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