Brand user profiles seldom differ, but do they seldom change?

There is ample evidence, summarised in Table 1, that the brand user profiles for competing brands seldom differ. The pattern is robust, holding across many brands, categories, countries, and times. Where the pattern does not hold is often self-evident; for example, the Bank of Scotland appeals more towards people living in Scotland compared to other UK (United Kingdom) banks. However, there is scant evidence about the stability of brand user profiles over time. Therefore, we analyse the buying behaviour from 69 consumer goods categories, including body sprays, fruit juices and nappies of 15,000 households demographically and geographically representative of the UK population.

Table 1 : Summary of Previous User Profile Studies

Our study builds on the method of previous brand user profile studies (see Report #7 and Report #81), except that it looks across time. To determine stability, we calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) or the average of the deviations regardless of sign (+/–) for each variable for each consecutive year. MADs <5 are unlikely to interest marketers, and MADs remaining within 1pp are consistent. Table 2 shows the results, empirically demonstrating that brand user profiles seldom differ and seldom change.

There was one major exception where the MAD was inconsistent over the years. The toothbrush category had MADs between 2 and 4, most likely caused by the category experiencing growth and evolution of technologies. Further analysis reveals that this deviation resulted from electric toothbrush brands appealing to older couples with no children, with the deviations from the average brand user profile increasing over time. 

Functional differences caused other notable deviations. For example, Johnson’s Baby Shampoo skews away from older households and those with no children (for obvious reasons). Marketers should understand such deviations specific to their brands and see if there are any growth limiting issues (e.g., are they underperforming in a geographical region). These examples show that categories can evolve in what they sell and who buys, but such cases are the exceptions; brands often copy each other’s successes, and deviations are rare and short-lived.

Table 2 : Category user profiles MADS

Strengthening our analysis, previous research found that just 8% of deviations were greater than 5pp, with very few over 10pp (Kennedy & Ehrenberg, 2000b; Uncles et al., 2012). Table 3 shows a similar result, even when examining more extended periods. On average, in any given year, 12% of deviations were greater than 5pp, while just 2% were more than 10pp.

Table 3 : Percentage of deviations from the average brand user profile

Summary & implications

This study confirms that competing brand user profiles seldom differ and that managerially meaningful deviations across demographic and attitudinal variables are the exceptions. Across over 700 brands and 163 variables from more than 60 CPG categories, brand user profiles seldom differ, a result that does not change much over three to six years.

Smaller brands tend to have higher deviations than larger brands (which is a recipe for being small). Brands should aim to look like the rest of the category, and as penetrations increase, user profiles become closer to reflecting the category buyer. Using the cola category as an example, we found that MADs decreased from 1.1 (largest five brands) to 1.9 (middle five brands) to 2.3 (smallest four brands). The pattern of smaller brands having larger deviations was consistent across the years. However, this may be partly due to smaller brand data being more subject to random sampling variation in individual years.

One practical implication of this research is that most marketing managers do not need to worry that their customer base will change much. Marketers can develop strategic plans with confidence that in five years, the demographic and attitudinal aspects of their target audience will most likely be similar to what they are today – subject to substantial developments that are likely to be known (e.g., ageing populations, changes to the economy, or functional changes in their category). 

For most brands that want to grow, their advertising should typically appeal to the broad audience of category users (even if this takes adaptation, for example, ads in German for those who speak German). This recommendation is also consistent with the evidence that brand growth occurs through increasing the number of buyers (Sharp, 2010) and the ultra-lightness of existing customer bases (Hossain et al., 2023; Graham and Kennedy, 2022).

Although marketers need to be on the lookout for good media buys, the audience to be reached will remain primarily static (category users) for most brands most of the time. Big brands may need to worry less about tailoring their offers for particular, unique groups of people. However, as individual-level automated targeting evolves, further monitoring will be required. Brands will need to continue to ensure that they maintain a broad customer base and offer the attributes that buyers value. 

On the research front, it is essential to understand the market (i.e., who buys and why; fortunately, this research shows that segmentation studies do not need to be updated very often).