This month Byron Sharp, the Director of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, was interviewed about what he prophesises now about 2025. By thinking today about the day-after-tomorrow, this helps businesses to increase their odds of being viable and successful despite all the disruption, disintermediation and exponential change to come the next 5-7 years. These are some of his answers…

Interviewer: There’s plenty of punditry on megatrends, cultural shifts, new technology and new business models (more direct to customer/consumer, digital and frictionless). In fact, lots of people are prognosticating on the implications of all of these for the next 5-7 years. But with your experience and advanced perspective, certainly you feel in your gut some megatrend or cultural shift – envision in your mind some business or marketing disruption or media mix change – sense something on the horizon that no one else yet sees. Maybe you’ve even said it out loud yet, but it’s there in your mind. What is it?

Sharp: I continue to be surprised how marketers (and other business people) are distracted by new and shiny things, fashion and “flying cars” sorts of predictions, and yet most pay so little attention to the big slow global trends such as the greatest increase in the rise in wealth (and decline in poverty) ever in human existence, greater productivity, more women in the paid workforce, much longer life spans and an overall older population. These big trends have profound implications, and they are set to continue for decades.

Interviewer: What does it mean for how marketers would drive growth differently 5-7 years from now than they do today?

Sharp: 1) Globalisation has a long way to go. All firms need to examine how fast and effectively they can roll out improved and new products globally. 2) Premiumisation. People are consuming more of some things (e.g. financial services, tourism) but the trend for many categories is flat volume growth but plenty of opportunity for better quality, higher priced offerings.

Interviewer: Given – not just your insights above but also what we all know is likely to be true 5-7 years from now (more advanced AI, more and bigger data sets etc), what are 2-3 ways you anticipate businesses will operationalise and organise their enterprise for marketing differently in the future than today?

Sharp: Given the hype around big data and AI we should be very conservative in our forecasts. But yes, in the workplace there will be more automation of routine tasks. This will affect marketing departments and agencies because more than they realise is actually quite routine.

There will be far more need for people who can think of clever questions and know how to do experiments etc to solve them.

Interviewer: And what then is the role, or value, of agencies. How might it be different than today?

Sharp: Increased need for creativity. Less demand for “hand holding”. I make this prediction on the assumption that marketing departments are going to become far better educated, far better and more confident at marketing decision making.

Interviewer: Whether on the marketer or agency side, what do you see as the top 3-4 core competencies required of those responsible for driving a brand’s growth in 2025?

Sharp: Understanding of the scientific laws. Imagination, in order to see their implications. Consumer orientation. Numeracy/logic. Financial understanding and other business practicalities.

Interviewer: Given your points above, what (if any) of the key tenets of “How Brands Grow” are likely to stand the test of time at least until 2025?

Sharp: They have been observed over decades, and vastly varied conditions. I’d be very interested, and surprised, if they did not stand a test of so few years let alone decades.

Interviewer: And will brands still matter in 2025? Or is the obsession with short term results (activation using digital marketing and real time reporting) so embedded that what it takes (time and investment wise) to build brand strength will fade away as a business objective?

Sharp: Brands exist because consumers are busy and find being loyal is an effective buying strategy. Try as marketers might to ruin this, I do not think it will change.