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From time to time we hear about alternative growth models where new brand “exceptions that prove the rule” seem to challenge what we know about brand growth, but do they?
 

Why do we repeatedly buy the same brands? Why do some products dominate shelves while others struggle to gain traction? The Theory of Planned Behaviour explains how our attitudes, social influences, and perceived control shape purchasing decisions. But to truly understand consumer choice, we must also consider the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute’s evidence-based marketing principles, which emphasize mental and physical availability as key drivers of brand growth.

By combining Theory of Planned Behaviour with Ehrenberg-Bass principles, we see a clear pattern: we buy what we know, and we know what we repeatedly see and experience. As marketers we do not need to over complicate it.

A month ago. June 28th, 2024. Nike Q2 24 financial results. 25bn of market cap lost in a day (70 in 9 months). 130 million shares exchanged in the stock market (13 times the avg number of daily transactions). The lowest share price since 2018, - 32% since the beginning of 2024.

Establishing a new brand is hard work. In categories where people already have a repertoire of brands they happily and easily buy from, these new brands start from zero for the fight for attention in category buyers’ minds, let alone for precious shelf space in retailers.

But what if a brand isn’t exactly new? What does this mean for likely success? Dr. Kirsten Victory and Dr. Will Caruso, senior marketing scientists at the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science, explain.

Why do some new products fail and other succeed? Some people might argue failure is common for many new products because they were not innovative or different enough. However, long-run success is still not guaranteed even for the most innovative and consumer-approved new launches. The Institute investigated how many new launches who have achieved Product of the Year status continue to survive in the long run.

Advertising effects are spread-out into the future, because most of the category buyers you reach with your advertising aren't in the market this week, nor next month. Advertising's job is to lay-down or refresh memories that will trigger when the buyer eventually (serendipitously, unpredictably) goes to buy; making the brand easier to notice, recognise and/or recall.

Paid search is very different from advertising - it is much more like shelf-space. An important implication is that (like shelf-space) it needs to be always on. The effects of paid search can be seen immediately in sales - this is very different from advertising and it has the advantage that spend can be fairly easily optimised.

Good idea – to conduct an audit to see where (which media) buyers are exposed to communication about your category, and how often.
Bad idea – to conduct this audit by asking buyers to remember where (which media) they receive brand messages from and (even worse) to say which media is more persuasive.
The validation study data published to publicise this technique also suggests the method is flawed.

Category Entry Points (CEPs) are the thoughts that people have when they transition from being a just an everyday person, not thinking about the category to a category buyer who is now thinking about the category.  These CEP thoughts act as retrieval cues to shape the options that are mentally available to buy at that time.  

This article deals with questions raised by the Institute’s Sponsors specifically about how to define and explain CEPs. 

Category Entry Points are the thoughts that people have when they transition from being a person to a category buyer at that point in time.  These thoughts act as retrieval cues that shape the options that are mentally available to buy at that time.  

This article deals with questions the Institute's Sponsors raised around Category Entry Point measurement and metrics.